A full autumn holds the balance near £200,000, peaking at £217,349 in November, but every site is billed out by December and from its peak the balance falls £735,722 to its July low. It looks like a mountain to climb. Take out the engineer payroll that any new job pays for, and what is really left to cover is overheads and the directors' pay — the same break even the profit forecast already names, and in cash it is a lower bar.
Every engineer is paid every month. The account crosses zero in February and ends at £(518,374) by July.
The balance opens at £165,601, is carried by the autumn's receipts to a peak of £217,349 in November, and holds near £200,000 while the last jobs invoice. It then falls away as the projects settle, through zero in February, down to £(518,374) by July, a net outflow of £(683,974) across the year on today's committed book.
Three phases, not two. Why it holds, then falls.
All the projects run and finish at staggered dates, St John Fisher first in September, Staveley and St George's last by the end of December. We collect at month end plus 30 while paying suppliers at month end plus 60, so we are paid before we pay out and the balance holds.
The vans are off site everywhere, but the plus 60 day tail means we are still paying for November and December's work while nothing new comes in. A £65,000 corporation tax bill lands in February, and the account crosses zero the same month.
The cost tail is exhausted and nothing new is booked, so nothing comes in. The account carries only the fixed drain of about £82,400 a month, and there is no project income left to meet it.
The account does not fall because the projects are unprofitable. While they run they throw off gross profit; it falls because after December there is no new gross profit landing on the fixed cost of keeping the business open. Across the seven idle months that hurdle is £287,693 of project gross profit, and it sits well below the £570,000 the profit break even needs, because in cash the VAT comes back to us and retention lands from past jobs. Steadying the ship is not finding £735,722 of dead cash. It is winning enough work that its gross profit covers overheads and finance, while the crews pay for themselves the moment they are back on site.
The confirmed book brings in £1,264,447 of project receipts, front loaded and billed out by January. But cash in is not cash kept: once each project pays its own direct costs, the book nets £321,003, and that is before the crews' own wages and the overheads. The chart shows when the receipts land; the table shows what each project actually nets.
Billed out by January. The only receipt after that is a £20,590 retention release in March; from then the book brings in nothing.
| Confirmed project | Income received | Payments out | Net into the account |
|---|---|---|---|
| St George's Park | £392,640 | (£307,377) | £85,263 |
| 6 Staveley Road | £358,622 | (£274,102) | £84,520 |
| Tetley Hall – Block E | £324,147 | (£210,315) | £113,832 |
| Thorner – Meadow Croft | £67,872 | (£36,370) | £31,503 |
| St John Fisher | £48,750 | (£82,701) | (£33,951) |
| Mill House | £46,000 | (£21,600) | £24,400 |
| Small works | £26,416 | (£10,979) | £15,437 |
| Confirmed book | £1,264,447 | (£943,444) | £321,003 |
Income and payments are the project lines from the August workbook, on the same cash timing as the forecast. Net is income less that project's own direct costs; the engineer payroll (about £29,250 a month) is a shared line not split by project, so the £321,003 the book nets is what covers the crews and the overheads — which is why the fixed base is the real hurdle in Section 2. St John Fisher nets negative because it is a finishing job whose plus 60 day cost tail is still being paid while its income has largely completed. Retention releases (£37,339) and other income (£13,776) land as pure cash on top. VAT is a net repayment from HMRC that nets into finance and taxes.
Every pound pulled forward pushes the February date out. Two strands to chase now.
| From | For | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Imad Ashfaq | Squats Gym | £25,000 |
| Connolly Broadley AD Ltd | Account usage | £13,776 |
| Northbanks | Percy Street | £4,004 |
| Retention | Amount | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Lawns – Main Contract | £3,885 | 2 Apr 2026 | Overdue |
| Hill Top Care Home | £16,749 | 31 Jan 2027 | DLP release |
| Tetley Hall – Block A | £9,472 | 11 Mar 2027 | DLP release |
| Tetley Hall – Block B | £11,118 | 11 Mar 2027 | DLP release |
The Lawns retention is overdue with £7,875 still outstanding on the contract. The three defect liability releases fall due across the winter, inside the tightest months, so they are worth chasing to date.
None of this is won, so none of it is in the forecast. Counting only the receipts and priced profit that fall inside this financial year, here is what the priced book could add if the jobs land. Where a job runs past July, the months beyond the year are flagged and excluded.
| Project | Contract | Income in year | Priced profit | Runs beyond |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousegate House York | £804,928 | £804,928 | £202,379 | — |
| Bryton / Selby | £1,700,000 | £1,416,667 | £166,667 | 2 more months |
| Denton Construction Project | £490,623 | £441,561 | £144,000 | 1 more month |
| King Edwin Park | £139,779 | £139,779 | £36,238 | — |
| Moor Grange View | £8,749 | £8,749 | £2,749 | — |
| If all five land | £3,144,079 | £2,811,683 | £552,033 | in year |
Priced profit is the in-year income at each job's own tendered margin. Only jobs with a start date on or after today and complete costings are shown; figures are unweighted and phased evenly across each job's duration with a one month collection lag. Bryton / Selby and Denton run past July, so the months beyond the year are excluded above.
Decide here. The account is strong at around £200,000 and every crew is on site. If no big job is signed, the directors build a plan while there is still room and time to act.
The last receipts land and the balance holds to its November peak. It still looks healthy, which is exactly why the call has to have been made already.
The crews come off site and the plan set in October is put into effect. The plus 60 tail bites, the account crosses zero in February and falls to its July low. A fresh decision made now would be too late to bill inside the year.
Cash flow director briefing, prepared August 2026. Opening balance £165,601 as at 1 August 2026 and monthly figures from the August 2026 cash flow forecast draft, committed and priced work only. The balance peaks at £217,349 in November 2026, turns negative in February 2027, and reaches £(518,374) by July 2027, a net outflow of £(683,974). Outgoings settle at month end plus 60 days and income at month end plus 30, Tetley Hall excepted at plus 60. Almost all work is domestic reverse charge, so the quarterly VAT return is a net repayment from HMRC. Engineer labour is £41,303 a month, the all in cost to employer of ten employed engineers and two subcontractors at full rate, £495,636 across the year; with the last site finishing at the turn of the year the crews are idle for seven months, January to July, at £289,121, a cost absorbed into project costs as work is won. The recurring monthly drain once the sites are empty is about £82,400, of which roughly £41,099 is overheads, directors' pay and finance. The £10,000 monthly management fee to the holding company and a £3,100 director dividend are the directors' pay and are treated as fixed cost. Prospect work is held in the pipeline scenario tool and is not included here.
Draft notes: Meadow Croft income is phased over three months and is still to be confirmed against the application date. Squats Gym (£25,000) and Percy Street (£4,004) sit outside the workbook's committed project income total and are excluded here, matching the August profit and loss forecast; both are worth confirming before the month is finalised.